US shutdown fallout: Who came out ahead -- and who didn't

 

WASHINGTON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - As the U.S. Congress moved toward a deal to end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, Reuters asked a dozen strategists and analysts to assess who strengthened their position and who paid a price, in the short- and long-term.

DONALD TRUMP: OWNING THE SHUTDOWN

No matter how many times the president has tried to avoid blame for the shutdown, ultimately, the buck stops with him. The White House has faced weeks of headlines about air traffic snarls and low-income families struggling to feed their kids. Even Trump himself admitted that the shutdown probably damaged Republicans in last week’s elections that saw Democrats win in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City.

“Americans recognize that 10 months into his presidency, costs have not gone down. And over the course of this 40-day shutdown, Trump did not emerge as someone who was fighting for them," said Democratic strategist Karen Finney. "He wasn't trying to resolve the issue. He wasn’t engaged, he was nowhere to be found.”

But the public has a short memory. After the government reopens, Trump can train his focus on Americans' cost-of-living concerns before the 2026 congressional midterms. He has shown he can keep his party together under extreme pressure while making few concessions.

“I think he comes out the winner of all this. He had to expend very little political capital in the shutdown," said John Elizandro, a Republican strategist.

"The negotiated deal gives him a resolution without forcing him to further escalate the clash with Senate Republicans over the filibuster,” he added, referring to the Senate requirement of 60 votes to pass legislation.

Consensus: Short-term loss, long-term neutral

SENATE REPUBLICANS: STAYING TOGETHER

Under the leadership of John Thune, Senate Republicans stayed united, held their ground and managed to peel off eight Democrats to vote to reopen the government. Their only concession was agreeing to a December vote on extending healthcare subsidies -- a vote widely expected to fail.

But unity doesn't guarantee immunity.

Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling showed that voters were more likely to blame Republicans than Democrats for the shutdown, a potential warning sign for next year's midterm elections. Some Republicans blamed the shutdown for the trio of losses the party suffered in elections last week.

Consensus: Short-term victory, long-term vulnerability

DEMOCRATS: A SPLIT DECISION

They held their ground – until they didn’t. Many in the Democratic Party are furious that eight senators defected after the party's electoral victories last week. Those senators argued their party's shutdown strategy wasn't working and lasting damage was being done to the economy.

But critics said they left those desperate for relief from healthcare premium increases in the lurch.

“Democrats who supported this compromise are feckless," said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic operative who worked on progressive Senator Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign. "I believed my party would deliver after (last week's) elections."

If Republicans torpedo the Democratic push to extend healthcare subsidies, it will give Democratic candidates a ready-made issue in the midterms – akin to 2018, when Democrats took back control of the House amid Republican threats to repeal the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare.

"Democrats have successfully elevated healthcare as a major national issue. This is dangerous for Republicans as healthcare drove the 2018 suburban blue wave," said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican congressman from Florida.

Consensus: Short-term backlash, long-term leverage

CHUCK SCHUMER: FIRE FROM THE LEFT

The Senate’s top Democrat saw his colleagues do an end-run around him to cut a deal with Republicans.

He voted against the measure, but critics on the left blame him for allowing it to happen, with some progressive advocacy groups and at least one Democratic congressman, Ro Khanna of California, calling for his ouster.

Consensus: Loss

FEDERAL WORKERS: RELIEF, FOR THE MOMENT

Government employees have been big losers in the shutdown, going without pay. Some have taken temporary jobs to help pay bills.

To their relief, the end of the shutdown will restart regular paychecks and give them back pay.

Under the proposed Senate deal backed by Republicans and the small group of Democratic senators, they also get a temporary reprieve from the Trump administration’s layoff push until the end of January.

But these workers must fear another shutdown next year. Both parties have shown their willingness to use federal employees as bargaining chips.

Consensus: Short-term loss, long-term risk

AIRLINE PASSENGERS: STILL BUMPY AHEAD?

The end of the shutdown should allow officials to reverse forced flight reductions at the busiest airports that have caused havoc for hundreds of thousands of travelers.

The government ordered the cuts due to absenteeism among the 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 airport security screeners who have been required to work without pay during the shutdown. Many didn't come to work because they took second jobs or couldn't afford childcare.

On Sunday, the 40th day of the shutdown, 10,200 flights were delayed in the worst day for air travel yet.

If the disruption lingers, it would prolong misery for travelers going into Thanksgiving week, one of the busiest air travel times of the year.

Moreover, even before the shutdown, the U.S. was about 3,500 air traffic controllers short of targeted staffing. Many worked mandatory overtime and six-day weeks, and air travel snarls were common, suggesting disruption may continue.

Consensus: Short-term turbulence, long-term uncertainty

OBAMACARE PARTICIPANTS: PAYING A PRICE?

For Democrats, the shutdown was about protecting consumers from rising health insurance costs as subsidies for Obamacare plans expire at the end of the year.

But the deal to reopen the government didn’t secure those protections — leaving millions who rely on the exchanges exposed to premium hikes.

Democrats hope to pass legislation next month to preserve the subsidies, but the odds are slim. If the effort fails, the families whom they sought to help will feel the full weight of rising premiums with no clear prospects for relief.

Consensus: Short-term loss, long-term threat

Reporting by James Oliphant and Tim Reid; additional reporting by Chris Sanders; Editing by Ross Colvin and Cynthia Osterman

Eluned Morgan rejects Trump state banquet invite

 

First Minister Eluned Morgan has declined the King's invitation to a state banquet with Donald Trump at Windsor Castle

Wales' First Minister Eluned Morgan has turned down the King's invitation to a state banquet with Donald Trump at Windsor Castle.

The US President arrived in London on Tuesday night with First Lady Melania Trump for his second state visit.

On Tuesday night the Welsh government said Morgan wanted to support colleagues at an "incredibly difficult time" after the recent death of Caerphilly Senedd member Hefin David.

On Wednesday a spokesperson said there was a "private engagement tonight between the first minister and MSs" after Mr David's death. Conservative Senedd leader Darren Millar said it would be seen as a "snub" by the United States and was "deeply regrettable".

What is Palestine Action, the activist group banned by the UK government?

The UK’s recognition of Palestinian statehood comes weeks after the government banned a pro-Palestinian activist group.

Palestine Action is an organization that aims to disrupt the operations of weapons manufacturers connected to the Israeli government. It was outlawed by the British government in June following a security breach at the UK’s largest airbase.

It was founded by Huda Ammori and climate activist Richard Barnard in 2020, when the group took its first action to shut down the UK operations of Elbit Systems – Israel’s largest weapons manufacturer – and stated its commitment to “ending global participation in Israel’s genocidal and apartheid regime.”

Since it was founded, Palestine Action has also, among other actions, occupied, blockaded, spray painted and disrupted the Israeli-French drone company UAV Tactical Systems and the global arms giant Leonardo.

However, it was the group’s late June 2025 action – when activists broke into Britain’s largest airbase, RAF Brize Norton, and vandalized two Airbus Voyager refueling planes with paint and crowbars – that spurred serious government action.

Days later, then-UK Home Secretary Yvette Cooper – who was made foreign secretary in a recent cabinet reshuffle – designated Palestine Action as a terror group, placing it on equal footing with organizations such as Hamas, al Qaeda and ISIS – sparking condemnation from United Nations experts, human rights groups, and politicians.

Hundreds have been arrested trying to protest the activist group’s ban.

Almost 900 demonstrators were arrested in London earlier this month, marking the largest mass arrest in the English capital in decades.

-CNN

Trump hits H-1B visas with $100,000 yearly fee

US President Donald Trump on Friday ordered an annual $100,000 fee be added to H-1B skilled worker visas, creating potentially major repercussions for the tech industry, where such permits are prolific.

The new measure, which could likely face legal challenges, was announced alongside the introduction of a $1 million "gold card" residency program that Trump had previewed months earlier.

"The main thing is, we're going to have great people coming in, and they're going to be paying," Trump told reporters as he signed the orders in the Oval Office.

H-1B visas allow companies to sponsor foreign workers with specialized skills --- such as scientists, engineers, and computer programmers -- to work in the United States, initially for three years, but extendable to six years.

The United States awards 85,000 H-1B visas per year on a lottery system, with India accounting for around three-quarters of the recipients.

Large technology firms rely on Indian workers who either relocate to the United States or come and go between the two countries.

Tech entrepreneurs -- including Trump's former ally Elon Musk -- have warned against targeting H-1B visas, saying that the United States does not have enough homegrown talent to fill important tech sector job vacancies.

"All the big companies are on board," said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who joined Trump in the Oval Office.

Trump has had the H-1B program in his sights since his first term in office, but faced court challenges to his earlier approach, which targeted the types of jobs that qualify. The current iteration has become the latest move in the major immigration crackdown of his second term.

According to Trump's order, the fee will be required for those seeking to enter the country beginning Sunday, with the Homeland Security secretary able to exempt individuals, entire companies, or entire industries.

The order expires in a year, though Trump can extend it.

The number of H-1B visa applications has risen sharply in recent years, with a peak in approvals in 2022 under Democratic president Joe Biden.

In contrast, the peak in rejections was recorded in 2018, during Trump's first term in the White House.

The United States approved approximately 400,000 H-1B visas in 2024, two-thirds of which were renewals.

Trump also signed an order creating a new expedited pathway to US residency for people who pay $1 million, or for corporate sponsors to pay $2 million.

"I think it's going to be tremendously successful," Trump added.

Elon Musk's Tesla sends bombshell letter to Trump admin warning about tariffs as stock price plummets

Elon Musk-owned Tesla has sent an unsigned letter to Donald Trump's top trade representative warning that the company could be harmed by the president's tariff war.

The Tesla CEO has earned the nickname of 'First Buddy' since joining Trump on the campaign trail in July, with the president rewarding Musk's presence - and millions in donations - with a special White House role.

However, Musk's company appears to have informed US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that the president's trade war with Canada and Mexico is bad for business.

The tariffs will likely drive up costs for American companies that use the metals, such as automakers.

The unsigned missive was uploaded to the public comment portal for Greer by one of Tesla's in house lawyers.

Tesla often leaves its public comments unsigned, though many will speculate if Musk had anything to do with it given his tight relationship with Trump. 

The automaker said it is important to ensure that the Trump administration's efforts to address trade issues 'do not inadvertently harm U.S. companies.' 

Elon Musk-owned Tesla has sent an unsigned letter to Donald Trump 's top trade representative warning that the company could be harmed by the president's tariff war

The Tesla CEO has earned the nickname of 'First Buddy' since joining Trump on the campaign trail in July, with the president rewarding Musk's presence - and millions in donations - with a special White House role.

It said it was eager to avoid retaliation of the type it faced in prior trade disputes, which resulted in increased tariffs on electric vehicles imported into countries subject to U.S. tariffs.

'U.S. exporters are inherently exposed to disproportionate impacts when other countries respond to U.S. trade actions,' the letter reads. 

'For example, past trade actions by the United States have resulted in immediate reactions by the targeted countries, including increased tariffs on EVs imported into those countries.' 

Trump is considering imposing significant tariffs on vehicles and parts made around the world in early April.

Tesla warned that even with aggressive localization of the supply chain, 'certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States.'

The automaker added that companies will 'benefit from a phased approach that enables them to prepare accordingly and ensure appropriate supply chain and compliance measures are taken.'

'As a U.S. manufacturer and exporter, Tesla encourages USTR to consider the downstream impacts of certain proposed actions taken to address unfair trade practices,' the EV maker said in the letter dated Tuesday.

DailyMail.com has reached out to both the White House and Ambassador Greer for comment. 

It comes as Musk and Trump's bromance appears stronger than ever after Trump turned the White House into a Tesla showroom earlier this week. 

Trump was making good on a his promise to purchase one of the pricey electric cars to support Musk, who is leading his Department of Government Efficiency efforts to cut back the size and scope of the federal government.

The model Trump bought, which he said his staff at the White House would use, has a starting price of $76,880. 

He and Musk sat in the car. Trump started the engine and Musk showed him the features. Alas, the president didn't take it for a test drive, saying the Secret Service wouldn't let him.

Trump defended Musk repeatedly. 

'This man is a great patriot and you should cherish it,' he said of him.

However, despite a brief rise in stock price after the White House event, Tesla stocks continued to slide the rest of the week.

Tesla stock is now down 36% year to date in the market.  

His company appears to have asked US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to be careful how the president goes about its trade war with Canada and Mexico

Wall Street's sell-off hit a new low Thursday after President Donald Trump's escalating trade war dragged the S&P 500 more than 10 percent below its record -  set just last month.

A 10 percent drop is a big enough deal that professional investors have a name for it - a 'correction' - and the S&P 500´s 1.4 percent slide on Thursday sent the index to its first since 2023. 

The losses came after Trump upped the stakes in his trade war by threatening huge taxes on European wines and alcohol. Not even a double-shot of good news on the U.S. economy could stop the bleeding.

The S&P 500's plunge from its February 19 high took just 16 trading sessions, making it the seventh-fastest correction since records began after the crash in 1929 that caused the Great Depression, according to Bloomberg data. 

Canada unveils $29.8B counter-tariffs on U.S.

 

Canada is hitting back at the United States with additional counter-tariffs worth $29.8 billion in response to new duties on Canadian steel and aluminum as a trade war between the two North American neighbours escalates.

The federal government made the announcement after a 25 per cent tariff imposed by the U.S. on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada and America’s other trading partners went into effect Wednesday.

Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Canada’s new 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. eastern on Thursday and apply to steel products worth $12.6 billion, aluminum products worth $3 billion and additional imported U.S. goods worth $14.2 billion.

“With these most recent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, the U.S. administration is once again inserting disruption and disorder into an incredibly successful trading partnership and raising the costs of everyday goods for Canadians and American households alike,” LeBlanc said.

“We will not stand idly by while our iconic steel and aluminum industries are being unfairly targeted.”

Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said these tariffs pose “an existential threat to our country” and Canada will continue to “fight back against this nonsense.”

“The only constant in this unjustified and unjustifiable trade war seems to be President Trump’s talks of annexing our country through economic coercion,” she told reporters on Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump had on Tuesday threatened to double the planned metal tariffs to 50 per cent in response to Ontario’s decision to impose a 25 per cent surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S., which was retaliation for Trump imposing sweeping 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods last week.The White House on Tuesday afternoon said the steel and aluminum tariffs would go ahead at 25 per cent instead of 50 per cent after Ontario suspended its electricity tax for three U.S. states.

The new counter-tariffs from Canada add to the 25 per cent counter-tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods that were imposed last week in response to the broad-based duties. Ottawa says these will remain in place until all of Trump’s tariffs are lifted.

Confused about how we got here? Click here for a timeline of Trump’s tariff threats and trade actions.LeBlanc said the federal government will continue to press the Trump administration to fully scrap the tariffs, while also working to support Canadian businesses and workers through “these challenging times.”

On Friday, the federal government unveiled new support measures worth $6.5 billion to mitigate the impact of the U.S. trade war on Canadian workers.

Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon also announced the temporary expansion of the “work-sharing program” to let employers cut hours while keeping workers in their jobs with income support.

Canadian provinces have separately unveiled their own retaliatory measures.

On Monday, Ontario introduced a 25 per cent tax on all electricity exported from the province to Michigan, Minnesota and New York in response to the U.S. tariffs on Canadian products. A day later, the province backed down and said there would be a meeting with U.S. officials on Thursday.

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said he and LeBlanc will join Ontario Premier Doug Ford for that meeting in Washington, D.C.

Meanwhile, Trump has threatened more rounds of tariffs on Canada’s auto sector and Canadian dairy and lumber. He’s also threatened so-called reciprocal tariffs on all of America’s trading partners, including Canada, which are set to kick in April 2.

How will the steel and aluminum tariffs impact Canada and U.S.?

The metal tariffs are expected to impact workers and businesses on both sides of the border.

The U.S. relies on Canada for 75 per cent of its imported primary aluminum, according to the Aluminum Association of Canada.“Trump is knowingly inflicting damage to the North American manufacturing sector with these inflationary tariffs that will injure workers, eliminate jobs, and hurt consumers,” Lana Payne, national president of Unifor, said in a statement Wednesday.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce said Trump’s tariffs are “proven to fail,” adding that the last time he tariffed steel and aluminum imports in 2018, it resulted in the “net loss of tens of thousands of American blue-collar jobs.”

“Steel and aluminum are about strength; these tariffs do nothing but weaken us both,” said Candace Laing, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.“President Trump may as well hand over North America’s steel and aluminum leadership to China.”

David Adams, president and CEO of the Global Automakers of Canada, said tariffs on steel and aluminum will only make vehicles that are built in the U.S. more costly for Americans.

“The increased price of American-built vehicles sold in Canada will make those vehicles less competitive in the Canadian market,” Adams said.Canada is not the only country being hit by the steel and aluminum tariffs.

Trump’s executive order, which kicked in 12:01 a.m. eastern Wednesday, applies to all steel and aluminum imports from America’s trading partners, with no exceptions or exemptions.