Whose Kashmir is it?

Known as the heaven on earth, the Kashmir Valley is famous for its natural beauty, picturesque scenery and fertile land. However, this territory has become the focus of a long-standing and complex dispute between India and Pakistan since 1947. Due to this dispute, the two countries have been involved in conflict many times and the future of the region is still uncertain. Kashmir is in the discussion again after the recent terrorist attack in ‘heaven’.

Ownership of Kashmir: Historically, Kashmir was not part of a single country. It has been ruled by different dynasties and empires at different times. After the end of British colonial rule in 1947, the Indian subcontinent was divided into two independent states – India and Pakistan. At the time of partition, Kashmir was an independent princely state. Its ruler was the Hindu Maharaja Hari Singh and the majority population was Muslim.

According to the policy of partition, the princely states had the right to join India or Pakistan or to remain independent. Maharaja Hari Singh initially wanted to remain independent. However, in October 1947, he sought India's help in the face of attacks by pro-Pakistani tribes. He controversially agreed to the accession of Kashmir to India through the Instrument of Accession. Pakistan considers this accession illegal. Pakistan claims that Hari Singh's agreement was against the will of the Muslim majority people of Kashmir. They argue that Kashmir should have been part of Pakistan on the basis of religious majority.

Who controls what area: Kashmir is currently divided into different parts and is controlled by three countries:

India: About 53 percent of the area, including the Jammu and Kashmir Valley, Ladakh and the Siachen Glacier, is under Indian control. India has divided the region into two union territories - Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Pakistan: About 37 percent of the area, including Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, is under Pakistani control. Pakistan has divided the region into two separate administrative regions.

China: Only 10 percent of the area, including Aksai Chin, is under Chinese control. Which has been in their possession since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Pakistan ceded a small part called the Trans-Karakoram Tract to China in 1963.

Economic resources and potential of Kashmir: Kashmir's economy is mainly dependent on agriculture, tourism and handicrafts.

Agriculture: Kashmir is known for its fertile soil and favorable climate. The main agricultural products here include rice, maize, wheat, barley, apples, pears, cherries, apricots and saffron. Kashmir is famous worldwide for its saffron production and it is a valuable economic resource.

Tourism: The natural beauty of Kashmir has earned it the nickname 'Switzerland of the East' or 'Paradise on Earth'. The picturesque valleys in summer, snow-capped mountains in winter attract tourists from all over the world. Tourism is an important pillar of the economy here. However, political instability and militant activities often harm this sector.

Handicrafts: Kashmir is famous for its shawls, pashmina, woodwork and carpets. These handicrafts are in high demand in the domestic and international markets and are a source of livelihood for many people.

Hydropower: Kashmir has several rivers, which create a great potential for hydroelectric power generation.

In addition, the region also has a lot of potential for mineral resources. Although it has not been fully evaluated yet, Kashmir can become a prosperous economic region if stability returns.

Conflict between the two countries over ownership disputes: India and Pakistan have been directly involved in several conflicts over the ownership of Kashmir:

First Indo-Pakistani War (1947-48): This war began after the Maharaja joined India. The first war between the two countries ended with a ceasefire after the intervention of the United Nations. As a result, Kashmir was divided into two parts.

Second Indo-Pakistani War (1965): This war began over Kashmir and both sides suffered heavy losses.

Kargil War (1999): This conflict was caused by Pakistani infiltrators trying to cross the Line of Control and occupy Indian territory, and India won.

In addition, there are regular border clashes, firing and militant attacks between the two countries, which always keep the situation heated.

Lack of a permanent solution internationally: Many attempts have been made to resolve the Kashmir issue at the international level through negotiations and mediation. However, no permanent solution has been found to date. The main reasons for this are:

The stubborn stance of both sides: India considers Kashmir as its integral part. They are reluctant to accept any third party intervention. On the other hand, Pakistan supports the right of Kashmiris to self-determination. They demand a referendum as per the UN resolution.

UN Resolutions: The UN Security Council has passed several resolutions to determine the future of the people of Kashmir through a referendum. However, India considers these resolutions irrelevant. Because they claim that Kashmir is already part of them.

Terrorism: Terrorist activities in Kashmir by Pakistan-based militant groups are a major cause of concern for India. India accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorism.

Geopolitical Complexity: The Kashmir issue is an important part of regional geopolitics. China also controls a part of the region. So their interests are also involved in this dispute.

The international community generally calls on both sides to show restraint and find a peaceful solution through negotiations. However, no specific And a workable solution formula has not yet been found.

Opinion of historians and international boundary law experts: Opinion of historians: Historians believe that the inclusion of Kashmir in the context of the partition of 1947 was a complex and controversial issue. The Maharaja's decision and the then political situation gave rise to this dispute. They also believe that no permanent solution is possible by ignoring the will of the people of Kashmir.

Opinion of international boundary law experts: International boundary law experts emphasize the validity of the 'Instrument of Accession' agreement and the right of the people of Kashmir to self-determination. According to them, the UN proposals are still relevant. For a permanent solution, it is important for both sides to show flexibility and respect for international law. They believe that the future of Kashmiris should be determined through a referendum or some other democratic process. However, its implementation is very difficult, because India considers it an internal matter.

The dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is a long-standing and deep-rooted problem. This land, known as the 'heaven on earth', has today become the center of bloody conflict and political instability. Despite its economic potential, the people of this region are looking at an uncertain future due to ownership disputes. Despite many efforts at the international level, no permanent solution has been found. Because both countries are adamant in their respective positions. The entire South Asia can be troubled only over the 'heaven on earth'. Therefore, both countries must be flexible to establish a lasting peace, even if it is for regional stability and humanitarian reasons. An acceptable solution must be reached by respecting the hopes and aspirations of the Kashmiris.

Whose military strength is India and Pakistan?

 According to the Global Firepower Index 2025, Pakistan is ranked 12th in terms of military power, while India is ranked fourth. The Global Firepower Index claims that India is ahead in military power due to its developed and large population, strong economy, and strategic location.

Budget for war is a big issue. India's defense budget is 75 billion US dollars. Which is the fourth largest in the world. Pakistan's defense budget is only 7.64 billion US dollars, which is 38th in the global index. GDP and purchasing power also have an impact. The study has placed India much ahead of Pakistan based on 60 factors such as GDP, population, military power, and purchasing power. 

In addition, India's foreign exchange reserves are ranked fifth in the world. While Pakistan is ranked 71st. That is, Pakistan is 66 steps behind India in foreign exchange reserves. As a result, if Pakistan enriches its weapons stockpile in all foreign currencies to provide logistics if a war starts, India will be 14 steps ahead of them.

Manpower is also an important issue. Because when a war starts, it is not only the military that is at stake. Civilians play an important role. 

According to Worldometer, India is now the most populous country in the world. The country has 1.46 billion people. Of which, the total number of troops in India's defense is 51,37,550, while Pakistan's is 31,62,500. 

India's active army is 15,55,550, Pakistan's 6,54,000.

 India's reserve army is 11,55,000, Pakistan's 5,50,000. 

India's paramilitary forces are 25,27,000, Pakistan's 5,00,000. 

Pakistan also lags behind India in terms of air force strength. India's total number of military aircraft is 2,229, Pakistan's 1,399. Pakistan's 328 against India's 513 fighter jets. 

Pakistan's 90 against India's 130 attack aircraft. Pakistan's 64 against India's 270 transport aircraft. Pakistan's 373 against India's 899 helicopters (of which 80 attack helicopters are from India and 57 from Pakistan).

India also has a large arsenal of ground weapons. Pakistan has 2,627 tanks against its 4,201 tanks. Pakistan has 17,516 armored vehicles against its 1,48,594 armored vehicles. 

Pakistan has 121 warships against India's 293. India has 2 (INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant), Pakistan has 0. India has 18 submarines, Pakistan has 8. 

Destroyers: India has 13, Pakistan has 0. Frigates: India has 14, Pakistan has 9. Corvettes: India has 18, Pakistan has 9. Patrol vessels: India has 135, Pakistan has 69.

Airports and seaports: Airports: India has 311, Pakistan has 116. Merchant ships: India has 1,859, Pakistan has 60. Ports: India has 56, Pakistan has 3.

Since both countries are nuclear powers, the consequences of a full-scale war could be extremely dire.

What will happen to India-Pakistan war?

A war situation is about to develop between India and Pakistan. Tensions between the two countries are increasing due to the recent attack on tourists in Kashmir. Islamabad has alleged that India may take military action against them in the next 24-36 hours. Although New Delhi has not commented on this issue. However, the direction in which the situation is developing, the possibility of a conflict cannot be ruled out.

Although it is difficult to provide any reliable information at the moment about the exact number of troops or equipment deployed, according to various international media reports, both countries have increased their military presence on the border. Security has been strengthened in Kashmir and an alert has been issued along the Line of Control.

However, most analysts believe that the possibility of a full-scale war is low. Because both countries are nuclear powers and an all-out war would bring disaster to both sides. However, the possibility of a limited-scale conflict or retaliatory military action cannot be ruled out. Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, believes that an all-out war is not possible. Because the nuclear weapons of both countries would act as a major deterrent. Praveen Dhonathi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes that there is huge pressure on the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi government to retaliate. Therefore, there is a possibility of taking limited military action. Which could be bigger than the Balakot strike in 2019.

Analysts believe that the intervention of the international community can play an important role in reducing this tension. The United Nations has already called on both sides to show restraint.

If the analysts' predictions are not met, then if a war really happens, then both sides are likely to suffer huge losses. A large number of soldiers and civilians could be killed in direct clashes. People in the border areas could be displaced. The war would cause a major blow to the economies of both countries. Trade would be stopped, investment would decrease and inflation would increase. India's decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty will have a major impact on Pakistan's agriculture and economy. Air strikes and shelling will destroy important military and civilian infrastructure. Which will cause billions of dollars of economic loss for both countries.

Major changes will come in geopolitics. A war between India and Pakistan will not only affect these two countries. It will bring a major change in the geopolitics of the entire South Asia. Regional instability will be destroyed. This conflict will further weaken regional stability. Old petty problems of other neighboring countries will be seen being turned over to a new account. As a result, new tensions may arise between each other. As a result of the war, relations between different countries may be polarized again. Some countries have already called on both sides to exercise restraint. Regional terrorism will rise again. There is no doubt that the war situation will strengthen terrorist groups. Because the equation is simple. During the war, big terrorist organizations will flock to the countries that are convenient for them. As a result, they will ensure a kind of shelter.

Preparations by both sides:

Indian preparations: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) after the attack. The army has been given complete freedom. They can decide when, where and how to respond. In addition, India has downgraded diplomatic relations, suspended the Indus Water Treaty and cancelled visas for Pakistanis. Some restrictions have also been imposed on the airspace. There are also reports of military exercises and deployment of troops on the border.

• Pakistani preparations: Pakistan has also brought its radar system closer to the border and is conducting air defense exercises. In addition, surveillance has been increased along the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB). Pakistan's Information Minister Ataullah Taraar has claimed that they have credible intelligence that India is planning a military strike. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has also spoken of the fear of war and said that they will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if there is a direct threat to their existence.

Despite everything, it can be said that while the likelihood of an all-out war is low, the risk of a limited conflict or escalation of tensions remains. The leadership of both countries should exercise restraint. A negotiated solution to this problem is the best way forward for both countries. Otherwise, this conflict will pose a threat not only to the two countries but also to the peace and stability of the entire region. The international community should also play an important role in this regard so that the situation does not deteriorate further.