A war situation is about to develop between India and Pakistan. Tensions between the two countries are increasing due to the recent attack on tourists in Kashmir. Islamabad has alleged that India may take military action against them in the next 24-36 hours. Although New Delhi has not commented on this issue. However, the direction in which the situation is developing, the possibility of a conflict cannot be ruled out.
Although it is difficult to provide any reliable information at the moment about the exact number of troops or equipment deployed, according to various international media reports, both countries have increased their military presence on the border. Security has been strengthened in Kashmir and an alert has been issued along the Line of Control.
However, most analysts believe that the possibility of a full-scale war is low. Because both countries are nuclear powers and an all-out war would bring disaster to both sides. However, the possibility of a limited-scale conflict or retaliatory military action cannot be ruled out. Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, believes that an all-out war is not possible. Because the nuclear weapons of both countries would act as a major deterrent. Praveen Dhonathi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes that there is huge pressure on the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi government to retaliate. Therefore, there is a possibility of taking limited military action. Which could be bigger than the Balakot strike in 2019.
Analysts believe that the intervention of the international community can play an important role in reducing this tension. The United Nations has already called on both sides to show restraint.
If the analysts' predictions are not met, then if a war really happens, then both sides are likely to suffer huge losses. A large number of soldiers and civilians could be killed in direct clashes. People in the border areas could be displaced. The war would cause a major blow to the economies of both countries. Trade would be stopped, investment would decrease and inflation would increase. India's decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty will have a major impact on Pakistan's agriculture and economy. Air strikes and shelling will destroy important military and civilian infrastructure. Which will cause billions of dollars of economic loss for both countries.
Major changes will come in geopolitics. A war between India and Pakistan will not only affect these two countries. It will bring a major change in the geopolitics of the entire South Asia. Regional instability will be destroyed. This conflict will further weaken regional stability. Old petty problems of other neighboring countries will be seen being turned over to a new account. As a result, new tensions may arise between each other. As a result of the war, relations between different countries may be polarized again. Some countries have already called on both sides to exercise restraint. Regional terrorism will rise again. There is no doubt that the war situation will strengthen terrorist groups. Because the equation is simple. During the war, big terrorist organizations will flock to the countries that are convenient for them. As a result, they will ensure a kind of shelter.
Preparations by both sides:
Indian preparations: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) after the attack. The army has been given complete freedom. They can decide when, where and how to respond. In addition, India has downgraded diplomatic relations, suspended the Indus Water Treaty and cancelled visas for Pakistanis. Some restrictions have also been imposed on the airspace. There are also reports of military exercises and deployment of troops on the border.
• Pakistani preparations: Pakistan has also brought its radar system closer to the border and is conducting air defense exercises. In addition, surveillance has been increased along the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB). Pakistan's Information Minister Ataullah Taraar has claimed that they have credible intelligence that India is planning a military strike. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has also spoken of the fear of war and said that they will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if there is a direct threat to their existence.
Despite everything, it can be said that while the likelihood of an all-out war is low, the risk of a limited conflict or escalation of tensions remains. The leadership of both countries should exercise restraint. A negotiated solution to this problem is the best way forward for both countries. Otherwise, this conflict will pose a threat not only to the two countries but also to the peace and stability of the entire region. The international community should also play an important role in this regard so that the situation does not deteriorate further.