Despite his intense public lobbying, U.S. President Donald Trump will not win the Nobel Peace Prize he so desires, according to experts and members of the award committee. The announcement is scheduled for October 10.
Analysts suggest that Trump's actions, which involve dismantling the international world order that the Nobel committee cherishes, make him an unlikely candidate.
Why Trump is Unlikely to Win
Experts cite several reasons why President Trump's bid for the prize is unlikely to succeed:
Contradiction of Nobel's Will: Alfred Nobel's testament states the award should honor the person who has done the most to "advance fellowship among nations." Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, argues Trump is doing the opposite by withdrawing the U.S. from international agreements (like the WHO and the Paris Accord) and initiating trade wars with allies.
Controversial Actions: Historian Asle Sveen notes that Trump's support for Israel in the war in Gaza and his attempts at rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin count against him.
Counterproductive Lobbying: The Norwegian Nobel Committee prefers to work independently and is wary of outside pressure. The deputy leader of the committee, Asle Toje, indicated that intense influence campaigns like Trump's often have a negative effect on a candidate's chances.
However, a former committee member, Henrik Syse, noted that past winners like Henry Kissinger and F.W. de Klerk have received the prize despite controversial records, but only after they "explicitly seen the things that they had contributed to were wrong, and therefore took the steps necessary to correct these wrongs."
Potential Alternative Winners
Instead of a political leader, the five-member committee may choose to highlight organizations or individuals dedicated to humanitarian work, especially in environments made more challenging by issues like U.S. aid cuts.
Potential laureates include:
Humanitarian and UN Groups: The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the UN Children's Agency (UNICEF), the Red Cross, or Doctors Without Borders.
Journalists and Press Freedom: Given the high number of media workers killed recently (many in Gaza), the committee could focus on press freedom organizations like the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.
Local Peace Mediators: Groups like Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms or local peace committees negotiating ceasefires and aid access in conflict zones.
UN Institutions: The International Court of Justice or the United Nations as a whole, which is marking its 80th anniversary.